Designing Diagnostic Questions for Behavioral Biases

How can we design one diagnostic question for detecting a person’s susceptibility to overconfidence bias?

1. Imagine you are presented with a complex math problem that you have never encountered before. How confident are you in your ability to solve it?
a) Very confident
b) Moderately confident
c) Not confident

How can we design one diagnostic question for detecting a person’s susceptibility to representativeness bias?

2. You meet a person who is wearing glasses, reads books, and is quiet. Based on these characteristics, what is the most likely occupation of this person?
a) Librarian
b) Teacher
c) Scientist

Answers:

1. Diagnostic question for overconfidence bias: "Imagine you are presented with a complex math problem that you have never encountered before. How confident are you in your ability to solve it?"

2. Diagnostic question for representativeness bias: "You meet a person who is wearing glasses, reads books, and is quiet. Based on these characteristics, what is the most likely occupation of this person?"

To design a diagnostic question for detecting a person's susceptibility to behavioral biases, we need to understand the characteristics and indicators of each bias. Let's start by discussing the two biases mentioned in the question: overconfidence bias and representativeness bias.

Overconfidence Bias:

Overconfidence bias refers to the tendency of individuals to overestimate their abilities or the accuracy of their judgments. To design a diagnostic question for detecting this bias, we can ask individuals to predict the outcome of a challenging task or problem.

For example, the question "Imagine you are presented with a complex math problem that you have never encountered before. How confident are you in your ability to solve it?" can help identify individuals who exhibit overconfidence bias. Those who choose option (a) - very confident - may be more susceptible to overconfidence bias as they may overestimate their abilities in unfamiliar situations.

Representativeness Bias:

Representativeness bias occurs when individuals make judgments based on how well an event or person matches a particular prototype or stereotype. To design a diagnostic question for detecting this bias, we can present a scenario that tests individuals' reliance on stereotypes.

For instance, the question "You meet a person who is wearing glasses, reads books, and is quiet. Based on these characteristics, what is the most likely occupation of this person?" can help assess whether individuals are prone to representativeness bias. If most individuals choose option (a) - librarian - it suggests a tendency to rely on stereotypes and make judgments based on superficial characteristics.

It's important to note that these diagnostic questions provide a starting point for identifying biases and understanding how individuals may be influenced by overconfidence bias and representativeness bias.